The University of Arizona

On the Eve of Urbanization: Bayesian Model Dating for Medieval Turku

Markku Oinonen, E Hilasvuori, H Mehtonen, K Uotila, P Zetterberg


The era of early urbanization in Finland coincides with large variations in the atmospheric radiocarbon concentration around the 13th–14th centuries AD. Therefore, the uncertainties of an individual 14C date are too large to support studies of this time period effectively. In this work, we have employ tree-ring wiggle-matching methodology and used Bayesian modeling of dates to account for stratigraphical a priori information within Aboa Vetus Museum, Turku, Finland. The wiggle-match method helps significantly to overcome the calibration-curve-induced challenges within 14C dating. The results of the dating model agree with the typological dates of the archaeological finds and illustrate a gradual evolution of urbanization in one of the oldest cities in Finland.

DOI: 10.2458/azu_js_rc.55.16244


radiocarbon, wiggle matching, Bayesian modeling, urbanization

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